Solid-state batteries are widely recognized as the core technological route for next-generation power batteries. Compared to current mainstream liquid batteries, they can achieve over 50% higher energy density while fundamentally addressing the safety risks of liquid electrolyte leakage and thermal runaway, making them a key technology for enabling new energy vehicles to exceed 1,000 kilometers of range and achieve safe application across all scenarios. Over the past five years, leading global battery manufacturers and automakers have invested over 100 billion in solid-state battery R&D, with laboratory-level technical validation largely completed. However, commercialization has consistently lagged behind market expectations, with the core bottleneck not being technical principles but rather cost control of key raw materials. This article will analyze the industrial status of core material lithium sulfide and explore the key constraints and future pathways for solid-state battery commercialization.

1. What is the value of all solid state batteries? They are 3-5 times more expensive

At present, the cost of all solid state battery cells in mass production lines is about 1.6-2.2 yuan/Wh, while the mainstream cost of lithium iron phosphate batteries is only 0.39-0.5 yuan/Wh, with a difference of 3-5 times.

Taking household cars as an example, achieving a range of 500 kilometers requires a 50kWh battery, with a minimum cost of 80000 yuan for all solid state battery cells and only over 20000 yuan for lithium iron phosphate of the same capacity; The battery cost difference for the 100kWh long-range version exceeds 100000 yuan. Due to the cost of packaging and system adaptation, the terminal car price is more than 150000 yuan higher than that of gasoline cars with the same configuration, lacking market competitiveness.

The industry generally regards 1 yuan/Wh as the "lifeline" for the large-scale application of all solid state batteries.

2. Where did all the money go? Lithium sulfide accounts for more than half of the material

The cost mainly lies in the electrolyte. Sulfide electrolytes account for 70% to 80% of the cost of battery cells, and 70% to 80% of the electrolyte cost comes from lithium sulfide.

By calculation, lithium sulfide alone accounts for over half of the total cost of solid-state battery cells.

A more extreme calculation comes from Changjiang Securities: in the BOM cost of 1.66 yuan/Wh, lithium sulfide accounts for 75%, about 1.24 yuan.

3. Why is lithium sulfide so expensive: three hard flaws

It's due to insufficient production capacity. Producing 1GWh of all solid state batteries requires about 280 tons of lithium sulfide. By 2026, the global effective production capacity will only be 830 tons, which is only enough to support the production of about 3GWh of batteries. Even the sample testing needs of leading enterprises cannot be met. And the qualification approval for lithium sulfide production is strict, with a production line construction period of up to 3-5 years, making it difficult to achieve a capacity explosion in the short term.

The purity requirement is extremely high. A purity of 95% for ordinary chemical raw materials is sufficient to meet the standard, while battery grade lithium salts usually require 99.5%, and lithium sulfide needs to reach 99.9% or more. Trace impurities can cause a decrease of more than 50% in electrolyte ion conductivity. For every 0.1 percentage point increase in purity, the purification cost doubles, and the loss rate in the purification process exceeds 30%.

The production and transportation conditions are harsh. Lithium sulfide immediately hydrolyzes and releases highly toxic hydrogen sulfide when it comes into contact with water. The air humidity in the production workshop needs to be controlled below 0.1%, and the equipment requires special anti-corrosion treatment. Transport uses argon sealed steel cylinders, and storage requires a dedicated explosion-proof constant temperature and humidity warehouse. The safety cost is several times that of ordinary chemical raw materials.

Due to the above factors, the current market price of lithium sulfide still exceeds 2 million yuan/ton, which is more than ten times that of ordinary lithium carbonate. In the past two years, the price peak reached 3 million to 5 million yuan/ton, exceeding the price of gold of the same weight.

4. Cost reduction path: from over 3 million to 500000

The goal of the entire industry is actually very unified now: as long as the price of lithium sulfide can be reduced to 500000 yuan/ton, the corresponding electrolyte cost can be reduced to 300000 yuan/ton, and the cost of all solid state battery cells can reach the life and death line of 1 yuan/Wh; If it can be further reduced to 200000 yuan/ton, the cost of all solid state batteries can be on par with current high nickel ternary batteries, and even cheaper than them. At that time, there will be no need to promote them, and consumers will naturally choose all solid state models with higher range and safety.

At present, cost reduction is mainly achieved through two paths: large-scale production expansion and process upgrading. The domestically developed "gas liquid solid three-phase reaction method" by Guoxuan High tech will increase preparation efficiency by three times and reduce energy consumption by 40%. The Anqing 20000 ton high-purity lithium sulfide production line is planned to be put into mass production in 2027; The cost of the Ningde Times solid-phase reaction route pilot line has been reduced to 800000 yuan/ton, and small-scale supply can be achieved by 2027; Overseas LG New Energy adopts solvent extraction method, while Toyota and other companies are simultaneously developing lithium sulfide recovery technology, which can reduce costs to one-third of existing processes. The globally announced 2030 lithium sulfide production capacity plan exceeds 200000 tons, which can support the production of 700GWh all solid state batteries and meet the installation demand of approximately 10 million new energy vehicles.

Most production capacity will be implemented after 2027, and the tight supply-demand situation is difficult to ease in the short term. The cost and production pace of lithium sulfide directly determine the commercialization process of all solid state batteries.

5. What does it mean to whom: who can take it down, who has pricing power

The cost and production capacity of lithium sulfide affect the layout of the entire industry chain: upstream lithium mining enterprises accelerate the transformation of lithium sulfide production, midstream electrolyte factories adjust their processes synchronously, downstream battery factories lock in production capacity in advance, and vehicle manufacturers plan and adapt to vehicle models in advance.

Whoever achieves low-cost and large-scale production of lithium sulfide first holds the pricing and standard setting power of the trillion level all solid state battery market.

To determine whether all solid state batteries have truly achieved commercialization, two core indicators can be referred to: the market price of lithium sulfide remains stable below 500000 yuan/ton, and the annual effective production capacity exceeds 100000 tons.